RBS Six Nations preview: Scotland vs Wales; Murrayfield, Sunday 15:00

Another tournament rolls around, and another episode in the long running series entitled "Scotland Are Looking Better This Year" is aired as usual.  Like every other installment in this series, I expect this one to end with the rugby equivalent of the denouement of Se7en; except it will be Scotland's hopes in Brad Pitt's box, rather than Gwyneth Paltrow's head. 

Plenty of opinion is focusing on the errant view that Wales do not like this fixture and that their record is poor at Murrayfield.  Fact is, the last four meetings in Edinburgh have yielded two Scottish wins, one for Wales and a draw - hardly a tale of dominance for the Scots or abject woe for the Welsh.  The current odds for a Wales win are 1-2 with our friends at Paddy Power, which surely paints its own picture: Wales are red-hot favourites, and rightly so.

Why? Scotland have the frustrating ability to look good just before it matters and we cannot see that changing this year, and especially this game.  Euan Murray, a revelation in the Autumn, is injured; Jason White is playing in the second-row; and when Phil Godman is your best 10 it is time to worry - not England-level worry, obviously, but still worry.

Due to the late injury to Henson (AGAIN!), Wales are in the oh-so-terrible situation of reverting to the team that was so impressive in the Autumn series and that eventually beat the Aussies.  Since then, the Cardiff Blues have become arguably the best team in Europe, and Ospreys are not far behind; they have the IRB World Player of the Year running amock from the wing; probably the fittest and most mobile pack in the tournament; and, well they are simply a much better team.

A lot of Welsh people I speak to see this game as a real banana skin, but that is simply because they don't wish to engage in too much hyperbole and end up with egg on their face should they lose.  Well I am not Welsh, and they are going to win.  (Make sure you have your ova ready to fling at me on Monday)

b&m.com prediction: Wales by 10

Spotter's Badge: Brian Moore saying "You can't put your boots on people any more Eddie, you should be able to, but you can't"

Scotland: Hugo Southwell (Edinburgh); Simon Webster (Edinburgh), Ben Cairns (Edinburgh), Graeme Morrison (Glasgow), Sean Lamont (Northampton); Phil Godman (Edinburgh), Mike Blair (Edinburgh); Allan Jacobsen (Edinburgh), Ross Ford (Edinburgh), Geoff Cross (Edinburgh), Jason White (Sale), Jim Hamilton (Edinburgh), Ally Hogg (Edinburgh), Simon Taylor (Stade Francais), John Barclay (Glasgow).
Replacements: Dougie Hall (Glasgow Warriors), Alasdair Dickinson (Gloucester), Kelly Brown (Glasgow Warriors), Scott Gray (Northampton Saints), Chris Cusiter (Perpignan), Chris Paterson (Edinburgh), Max Evans (Glasgow Warriors).

Wales: Lee Byrne (Ospreys); Leigh Halfpenny (Blues), Jamie Roberts (Blues), Tom Shanklin (Blues), Shane Williams (Ospreys); Stephen Jones (Scarlets), Mike Phillips (Ospreys); Gethin Jenkins (Blues), Matthew Rees (Scarlets), Adam Jones (Ospreys), Ian Gough (Ospreys), Alun Wyn Jones (Ospreys), Ryan Jones (Ospreys, capt), Martyn Williams (Blues), Andy Powell (Blues).
Replacements: Andrew Bishop (Ospreys), James Hook (Ospreys), Dwayne Peel (Sale), John Yapp (Blues), Huw Bennett (Ospreys), Luke Charteris (Dragons), Dafydd Jones (Scarlets).

Why not subscribe to Blood and Mud? You can get all our updates fresh in your inbox via email, or add us to your favourite feedreader