Blood & Mud

RBS 6 Nations: England vs Wales - the baffling optimism of many England fans

Ever since Stuart Lancaster named his team for the upcoming clash with Wales there have been a great number of England fans making statements about a renewed sense of optimism.  Some going as far as stating, solely on the basis of this team selection, that England will win.   This is wrong, and here's why.

England are playing at home, and Wales have only won once at Twickenham in five years.  On the face of it this is good portent for the home team; but stats like this are useless in the current context, which is all about form, experience and recent results.

England go into this game with another untried midfield partnership, one that still looks short on craft and big on grunt; a new cap in charge of calling the lineout; a half-back partnership that have only played together on the training field; a backrow that lacks both balance and experience; and a captain who has only two caps.

This is being stacked up against a settled Wales team that has scored tries almost at will, looks fit and tough in defence, has an impressive game manager at 10, and has the best 7 in Europe.  Their only dodgy area until now is the lineout, and the return of Alun Wyn-Jones should go a long way to sorting this.  The only worry for them is that Farrell will no doubt slot every kickable penalty, and every Welsh fan who remembers Wembley 1999 will know what that can do for an underperforming side on the day.  No, I don't think that will happen again either. 

This post is not saying England are a bad team or that there is no hope for the future, but any rational consideration of the current state of the two teams demonstrates that this hope must lie in a future beyond this Saturday.

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RBS 6 Nations: England vs Wales - the baffling optimism of many England fans

Ever since Stuart Lancaster named his team for the upcoming clash with Wales there have been a great number of England fans making statements about a renewed sense of optimism.  Some going as far as stating, solely on the basis of this team selection, that England will win.   This is wrong, and here's why.

England are playing at home, and Wales have only won once at Twickenham in five years.  On the face of it this is good portent for the home team; but stats like this are useless in the current context, which is all about form, experience and recent results.

England go into this game with another untried midfield partnership, one that still looks short on craft and big on grunt; a new cap in charge of calling the lineout; a half-back partnership that have only played together on the training field; a backrow that lacks both balance and experience; and a captain who has only two caps.

This is being stacked up against a settled Wales team that has scored tries almost at will, looks fit and tough in defence, has an impressive game manager at 10, and has the best 7 in Europe.  Their only dodgy area until now is the lineout, and the return of Alun Wyn-Jones should go a long way to sorting this.  The only worry for them is that Farrell will no doubt slot every kickable penalty, and every Welsh fan who remembers Wembley 1999 will know what that can do for an underperforming side on the day.  No, I don't think that will happen again either. 

This post is not saying England are a bad team or that there is no hope for the future, but any rational consideration of the current state of the two teams demonstrates that this hope must lie in a future beyond this Saturday.