Statgasm: Rugby World Cup weekend preview

Now that a few games have been had, some trends are starting to occur. BORIS and Al though instead of saying boring shit like how many times they have played each other, they would provide a standard set of numbers out of the 155 different factors they have to choose from (I think that’s what 01000101001010101000100101010 in binary means). They have also been tracking the Tri-nations teams to get a longer trend. If this type of pre match piece works for you, or not, post a comment.

Argentina v Romania a.k.a. The Oaks stats from RWC

Kickers: Argentina – Comtepomi 1 from 2, Rodriguez 29% (2 from 7); Romania – Dumbrava 40% (2/5) Dimofte 3 from 3.

Concerning Argentina stats: Missing on average 1 in 7 tackle attempts, 12 lost possessions/turnovers (2 occurring at ruck, 4 are hand errors), conceded 15 penalties (2 while in possession, 8 at the ruck).

Very weird Argentina stat: 8 of the 9 pens conceded (that ended up as shots goal) were on the left side of the field.

Concerning Romania stats: Missing on average 1 in 4 tackle attempts, 14 lost possessions/turnovers (2 occurring at ruck, 9 are handling errors), conceded 11 penalties (1 while in possession 3 at the ruck).

Stats Argentina wants to continue: 10 linebreaks, 6 offloads, 1 charge down, broke 29 tackles (5 in the opposition’s 22).

Stats Romania wants to continue: 5 linebreaks, 7 offloads, 1 charge down, broke 13 tackles (4 in the opposition’s 22).

Ref Walsh: 3 scrum resets, 5 scrum infringes, 22 penalties (10 at the ruck, 0 inside the 22, 7 were for offside) 7 penalties were used to have a crack at the posts, with 85% on left side of the field. Ranking Walsh out of the 10 refs at RWC (1 = most/highest), he is 1st for offside penalties 3rd for penalties (any type) and 3rd for scrum infringements.

Rugby World Cup – Statgasm Preview Day 3

by RuckingGoodStats

Based on day two of the Rugby World Cup, there is no easy games. Even if there were no upsets, yesterday meant everyone has a chance, and that’s got to put the shits up the favourites. BORIS (Binary Organic Rugby Intelligence System) the computer and his best mate Al G. Rhythm have crunched a few numbers on the big boys in today’s match up.

Australia v Italy
If you know any Australian rugby fans, they are full of it at the moment. Slapping the All Blacks last time out (they seem to forget being hammered at Eden Park in the previous month) they have Bill’s trophy in their cabinet already. However the more knowledgeable Aussie supporter is worried about falling away like they did against Samoan, getting a Pacific Island hit with Auntie’s sandal.

In 2011 the Wallabies are averaging: 20.2 lost possessions/turnovers (3.2 of these are at the ruck, 8.8 handling errors); conceding 8.4 penalties (6.2 at ruck); missing 17.8 tackles (missing 1 in 5 attempts); and 7.8 linebreaks.

The Auzzari have only won two of their seven 2011 clashes, but managed to pip the French by a point, so they can do it. Wallabies have won all 13 encounters against the Auzzurri. Be happy if Italy scare the Aussies for most of the game.

P.S. BORIS says don't 2nd guess Quade Cooper. If he misses a kick at goal, it doesn't mean he will miss the next one. BORIS and tracks every half-arse low probability thing he does and it's either mentally insane or totally brilliant, you choose.

Rugby World Cup – Statgasm Preview

Aastats by RuckingGoodStats

Hype over, finally the games can start! Few interesting opening games in the first weekend. Doing the random probability numbers is BORIS (Binary Organic Rugby Intelligence System) the computer.

New Zealand v Tonga.

Hard to go past New Zealand for this one, but against them is a pretty fired up Tongan team who actually fancy their chances. Tonga will be buoyed by the Samoan shellacking of Australia recently. BORIS expects the first 26 minutes to be exciting until the All Blacks put the hammer down. The Tongans will come out on adrenaline so expect some big hits with no arms in the mid-field.

Statistically the All Blacks have a lot to prove. This year they are making 20.4 lost possessions/turnovers per game, 9.2 being handling errors. If they cough the ball up at the right time the Tongans could make a game of it, for a while. 

What will be interesting is the pace of the All Blacks game at RWC. In 2010 the All Blacks would play at least one half of the game where the ball is contestable for over 19 minutes and smoke the opposition (the ball averages about 17 minutes in an international out of the 40 minutes available. Surprised? Feel like a ticket refund?). In their last two outings (losses) every half went 19 minutes plus of contestable time. Remember one of these losses was against an ‘old and unconditioned’ South African team. The rest of the world can play at this pace if it’s needed.

Tonga has played the All Blacks 3 times before with New Zealand winning all and putting 90 points on them on two occasions.

BORIS also predicts at least one choking comment per four international households watching this game.

Clancy is the ref who last time applied common sense when the All Blacks threw a forward pass and then got in the shit with his bosses for not applying the rules.

Statgasm: RBS 6 Nations round four

Aastats Wales 19 -13 Ireland

Many would perhaps say that the only stat relevant to this game is the one about number of tries given that should not have been, but let's look at some more obscure and interesting ones.

– 20% of all Ireland's possession ended in an error, over half of that total was from minging kicks

– Wales missed a staggering 12 tackles, or to put it another way 10% of the all those they attempted.  Shaun Edwards' head may well explode at that one

– Wales did not have a single scrum awarded to them in the whole match

– Ireland had more possession, and won nearly three times as much ball in their opponent's 22, yet still lost.  What a game, eh?

Italy 22 –  21 France

Unfortunately, we couldn't measure the Italians tears of joy by the cubic metre, but here's some other stuff.

– 2, the total number of scrums Italy both won and lost.